El Nino In 2026 May Set A Record
2026-08-06
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Since this spring, the sea temperature in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific has been persistently abnormally high, and the El Nino phenomenon has developed rapidly. The main meteorological institutions at home and abroad all predict that this El Nino will continue to strengthen, with a high probability of reaching the standard of strong or even super strong, and may last until early spring of 2027.
The strong El Nino event in the context of global warming not only increases the risk of extreme weather, but will also produce a series of long-term effects by affecting agricultural production, product prices and global supply chains.
Strong El Nino is coming
At present, the conclusions of domestic and foreign prediction models on the development of El Nino phenomenon are highly consistent, and it is expected to reach the standard of strong or even super El Nino.
According to the latest prediction of the National Climate Center of China, the sea surface temperature of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific will continue to rise in the future, and a strong-super El Nino event will form in the summer and autumn.
The latest monthly "Global Seasonal Climate Update" released by the World Meteorological Organization shows that from July to September 2026, the El Nino state will rapidly develop into a strong El Nino event. The multi-model ensemble forecast from multiple major prediction centers around the world shows that the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean continues to rise significantly, and the seasonal average sea surface temperature in key monitoring areas is expected to be more than 2 degrees Celsius higher than the long-term average.
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center reported on the 9th that in the past month, the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean has continued to rise, and the coupling characteristics of the ocean and atmosphere indicate that the El Nino phenomenon is strengthening. It is expected to continue to strengthen in the second half of this year, and there is a 97% probability that it will continue until early spring of 2027. The probability of a strong El Nino event from October to December this year is 81%, and its intensity may rank among the strongest El Nino events since 1950.
According to the latest announcement issued by the Peruvian El Niño Research Institute, the coastal El Niño will gradually reach its strongest stage from August to November and may develop into a very strong level.
Extreme weather is more frequent and stronger
The World Meteorological Organization issued a press release at the beginning of this month, saying that the El Nino state has developed in the tropical Pacific region, and that it is expected to rapidly intensify in the coming months, thereby increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, and heavy rainfall in many parts of the world.
Experts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts also said on the 7th that the overall strength of the current El Nino phenomenon is expected to set a new record, and all parts of the world are facing the risk of droughts, floods and other extreme weather events related to it.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, it is expected that El Nino will continue to strengthen in the northern hemisphere in the autumn, and its impact will extend to many regions of the world.In terms of temperature, it is highly likely that the temperature in most land areas between 60°S and 60°N will be higher than the average annual temperature, which covers almost all densely populated areas outside the polar regions.In terms of rainfall, the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is more likely to have above-normal rainfall, while parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, the Indian subcontinent, and most of Australia are more likely to have below-normal rainfall.
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California in the United States, said that this El Nino event is unusual. It not only has broken many records in the current period, but also occurs in the context of burning coal, oil and gas causing global warming, so it cannot be simply assumed that it will completely replicate the impact of the strong El Nino event in history.
Many climate scientists predict that the combination of global warming and the release of accumulated heat in the ocean caused by El Nino will likely set a new record for the global average temperature in the coming months. Zachary Labe, a researcher at the U.S. independent climate research institution Climate Central, said that a strong El Nino will increase the likelihood of setting "stunning" temperature records in the next 6 to 12 months.
Beware of long-term effects
In addition to bringing extreme weather, El Nino will also have a long-term and far-reaching negative impact on economic and social development. Sabha Netukandi Chenoli, an associate professor of geography at the Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences of the University of Malaya, said that at present, it is the southwest monsoon season in Malaysia, and the rainfall is relatively low. El Nino will further suppress the rainfall, making the forests and peatlands drier and increasing the risk of fires. At the same time, the continuous drought may also lead to a decrease in river flow and a decline in reservoir water levels, putting pressure on the production of major agricultural products such as palm oil, natural rubber, and rice, and affecting tourism, transportation, public health, and other fields to varying degrees.
When the Central Savings Bank of Peru released its monetary policy report for July, it predicted that the El Nino phenomenon would drag down Peru's economic growth this year. Adrian Armas, general manager of economic research at the Central Bank of Peru, told the media that the central bank's current economic forecast is based on the assumption that a strong El Nino phenomenon will occur this year.In this scenario, El Niño is expected to reduce Peru's GDP growth rate by 0.7 percentage points in 2026.
The British Financial Times believes that in the era of globalization, El Nino is no longer a simple meteorological concept, but has become an important risk factor that can affect global market expectations. The International Monetary Fund also pointed out in its research that the impact of El Nino is not limited to the countries where abnormal weather occurs, but will also be transmitted to other countries through international trade, cross-border investment and product markets, and its impact may affect economies that have not directly encountered extreme weather.
Tian Zemin, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and president of Nanjing University, said that the impact of El Nino has obvious cross-regional characteristics. Due to its cross-industry characteristics and lag, it is necessary to strengthen climate prediction and early warning, key industry linkage, and supply chain risk management from the perspective of climate risk chain to prevent and respond to El Nino, so as to enhance the systematic response ability of the whole society to strong El Nino.
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The Earth is "running a fever"! Temperatures of 50°C have become a reality : What does the future hold?
2026-08-05
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The World Meteorological Organization released its "State of the Global Climate 2025" report, delivering a sobering conclusion: the period from 2015 to 2025 will be the 11 hottest years on record.
Globally, many places have broken extreme temperature records of 50°C. Heat waves, once rare, are now more widespread, more frequent, and longer-lasting.
High temperatures are no longer distant news, but a global norm we must all face. Behind the Earth's persistent "fever" lies a climate truth that deserves our deep reflection.
Below, PeakVision will analyze it for you!
I. Data Shatters False Hopes: 11 Consecutive Years of Scorching Heat, the Threshold for High Temperatures Continues to Rise
Many people always thought that "extreme high temperatures are just short-term anomalies," but eleven consecutive years of record-breaking high temperatures completely overturn this illusion.
The report shows that the current global average temperature is 1.44°C higher than pre-industrial levels, greenhouse gas concentrations are breaking historical records year after year, and the Earth's heat balance is completely unbalanced. More solar radiation is entering the Earth than dissipating, with over 90% of the excess heat trapped in the oceans, slowly baking the land.
A decade or so ago, 40°C was considered rare extreme weather; now, temperatures in Northeast China, the Gobi Desert in Northwest China, and southern cities are repeatedly exceeding 42°C, while parts of the Middle East and India frequently approach or even surpass 50°C.
Heat waves that used to peak in July or August are now sweeping across many countries in May or June, significantly extending the high-temperature season, and the "cool summer" is gradually becoming a memory. This eleven-year cycle of high temperatures is not a natural climate fluctuation, but a long-term trend brought about by human-induced warming.
II. The "Heat Dome" Locks in Heat Waves: Why Are 50°C Temperatures Becoming More Common?
Many people wonder why a temperature increase of just over 1°C can lead to extreme heat reaching 50°C. The core reason lies in the heat dome effect.
The accumulation of greenhouse gases stabilizes atmospheric high-pressure systems, acting like an airtight lid over cities. Descending air currents suppress clouds and rain, trapping heat and causing ground temperatures to soar.
This is compounded by accelerated warming in the Arctic, disrupting global atmospheric circulation. The number of cold air masses that previously brought southward cooling has significantly decreased, while the subtropical high pressure system has shifted northward unchecked. Where temperatures once only reached tropical deserts at 50°C, now even temperate cities are not immune to the scorching heat.
Even more unbearable is the humid heat. High humidity hinders sweat evaporation, making a 37°C feel like a dry 50°C – the sauna-like conditions of Northeast China this year are a prime example. Simply put, global warming has raised the baseline temperature, amplifying the intensity of all extreme heat waves.
III. The Chain Reaction of High Temperatures: More Than Just Physical Discomfort – Impacts Every Aspect of Life
The harm caused by persistent high temperatures is far more than just "sweating outdoors"; it's a chain reaction crisis that affects everything.
On the health front, high temperatures trigger heatstroke and cardiovascular diseases, doubling the risks for outdoor workers, the elderly, and children. In agriculture, persistent droughts scorch crops, increasing the risk of global food shortages year by year.
On the infrastructure front, softened roads, overloaded power grids, and depleted reservoirs are just some of the problems caused by climate change. The destruction of the national highway in Dunhuang by floods and the temporary closure of the Mogao Grottoes due to extreme weather are microcosms of this climate disruption.
Furthermore, high temperatures exacerbate wildfires, heavy rainfall, and flash floods, leading to frequent and dramatic shifts between drought and flood. High temperatures are no longer just a weather issue, but a systemic risk threatening people's livelihoods, the economy, and the environment.
IV. Refuse to Lie Down and Watch: Small Things Ordinary People Can Do to Cool Down, But They Can Gather Immense Power
Combating global warming is not only the responsibility of governments and businesses; ordinary people's daily choices can also slow down the rate at which the Earth is "overheating."
Prefer rail and cycling for travel, and reduce private car use for short distances to decrease carbon emissions; set air conditioning to at least 26°C in summer, and turn off appliances when not in use to save electricity; refuse food waste to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from livestock farming; reduce single-use plastic products and practice waste sorting.
These seemingly small habits, if consistently maintained by hundreds of millions of people, can significantly reduce the rate of carbon emission growth.
At the same time, we must proactively adapt to the new normal of high temperatures: reduce outdoor work during hot periods, improve urban greening and shading facilities to enhance urban heat resistance, proactively learn about heatstroke prevention and disaster preparedness, and no longer take extreme heatwaves lightly.
PeakVision wants to say: Eleven years of continuous high temperatures and widespread 50°C heat waves are an urgent warning from Earth.
In the past, we always considered global warming a distant concept, but now scorching heat, flash floods, and droughts are upon us one after another. Earth's fever will not subside on its own; climate repair requires long-term commitment.
Whether it's the macro-level low-carbon transformation of industries or each individual's green travel and electricity saving, these are all effective remedies for cooling down the Earth.
Only by facing the normalization of high temperatures and actively practicing a low-carbon lifestyle can we prevent extreme heat of 50°C from becoming a daily occurrence every year in the future.
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A place where heatstroke is very likely to occur, which most people overlook
2026-08-04
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Understanding and Preventing Indoor Heatstroke
Many people misunderstand heatstroke, believing it only occurs after prolonged exposure to the sun and that staying indoors and avoiding direct sunlight will prevent it.
In fact, many cases of heatstroke are caused by staying indoors in a stuffy environment, especially among the elderly who don't like using air conditioning.
Elderly people who don't like using air conditioning are prone to heatstroke.
Recent Cases Highlight the Risk
Recently, the emergency department of a well-known hospital admitted two patients with heatstroke at home, both caused by relying solely on fans for cooling during hot weather without air conditioning. The emergency department also admitted an elderly person suffering from heatstroke at night; due to the enclosed and humid environment of their home, they presented with symptoms such as high fever, weakness, and palpitations, with a body temperature reaching 39.1℃ upon arrival.
The core culprit for these elderly people's heatstroke is not direct sunlight, but rather "high temperature + high humidity + poor ventilation."
Some experts say that during the hottest days of summer, temperatures rise and humidity increases. If homes are kept closed for extended periods without ventilation, air circulation is impaired, leading to the accumulation of hot and humid air. When the temperature exceeds 32℃ and the relative humidity is greater than or equal to 60%, the body's heat dissipation is significantly hindered, and the risk of heatstroke increases significantly.
Why the Elderly are Vulnerable
High temperature and humidity environments are especially difficult for the elderly.
As people age, the body's thermoregulation function gradually weakens, the ability to sweat declines, and the ability to sense temperature decreases. Therefore, the elderly may already have a high body temperature but do not feel it. Some elderly people are reluctant to turn on the air conditioner due to thrift or fear of cold drafts, only turning on the fan to cool down when it is unbearably hot, making them more prone to heatstroke.
What are the Signs of Indoor Heatstroke?
The elderly and their families should pay close attention to their physical condition and deal with any abnormalities promptly. Heatstroke has the following stages:
Heat exhaustion (prodromal symptoms): During heat exhaustion, there will be profuse sweating, thirst, dizziness, headache, blurred vision, tinnitus, and weakness in the limbs, while body temperature is usually normal.
Mild heatstroke: Symptoms include mild to moderate fever, flushed or pale face, hot or cold and clammy skin, nausea and vomiting, rapid pulse, and decreased blood pressure. At this time, move the patient to a cool, well-ventilated, and quiet place to rest, and replenish fluids and electrolytes appropriately.
Severe Heatstroke: This condition is more critical and can be life-threatening if not treated promptly. Excessive sweating after exercise can easily induce fever and cramps, which is more common in young adults; the elderly and patients with chronic diseases often experience heat exhaustion, typically manifested as excessive sweating, cold and clammy skin, pale complexion, and decreased blood pressure. In the most severe cases, heatstroke may occur, with patients experiencing high fever, accompanied by delirium, convulsions, coma, and other severe impairments of consciousness.
In the event of any of these dangerous situations, immediately call emergency services or take the patient to a hospital. Simultaneously, immediately move the patient to a cool, well-ventilated place, and use damp towels, ice packs, fans, etc., to moderately cool them down.
Three Things to Do to Prevent Indoor Heatstroke
In summer, outdoor temperatures are hot and humid, and the elderly tend to spend more time at home due to reduced outdoor activity. To create a comfortable and livable indoor space, do the following:
Control temperature and humidity; don't try to tough it out if you feel hot.
Keep a thermometer and hygrometer at home. If the temperature and humidity are too high, turn on the air conditioner to cool down. While the cooling mode provides a strong airflow and direct cold air, prolonged use can quickly lower the room temperature, but the air may still remain damp and sticky.
Short-term use of dehumidification mode, depending on the indoor humidity, helps sweat evaporate normally, lowering the temperature while keeping the body dry. It's recommended to set the air conditioner temperature between 26℃ and 28℃, ensuring the indoor and outdoor temperature difference does not exceed 7℃. When indoor humidity drops to 40% to 60%, sweat can evaporate normally, directly lowering the perceived temperature by 2 to 4℃.
Proper ventilation is key to warding off indoor heat.
Many elderly people keep doors and windows tightly closed all day, which is a mistake. During the hottest part of the day, windows can be closed while using air conditioning, but in the cooler mornings and evenings, windows should be opened for 20-30 minutes. When using air conditioning, ventilate every 2-3 hours, or leave a small crack in the window to allow air circulation.
Alternatively, when the outdoor temperature is low, place a fan one or two meters away from the open window, directing the airflow directly at the window to accelerate air circulation and quickly lower the temperature. Placing green plants such as pothos and spider plants indoors can help dissipate some heat through transpiration.
To avoid dehydration, replenish electrolytes frequently.
Experts suggest that older adults actively replenish fluids, drinking a small glass of warm water every 1-2 hours even if they are not thirsty. They can increase their water intake before and after meals or medication to maintain fluid balance.
Daily water intake should be at least 1500-2000 ml. Those with heart or kidney diseases should follow their doctor's advice regarding water intake. When sweating excessively, a suitable amount of salt and sugar can be added to the water. In addition, mung bean soup, plum juice, and lotus seed and lily bulb porridge are good choices for relieving heat. Try to drink less or avoid cold drinks and sugary beverages.
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50°C, here it comes.
2026-08-03
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The Earth is running a fever pitch; extreme heat is sounding the alarm.
In late July, an unprecedented wildfire in southwestern France relentlessly advanced into urban areas. Within a very limited timeframe, French police went door-to-door, forcing 220,000 people to evacuate in the Gironde department alone. A similar scene unfolded across the Pyrenees, with flames licking at various parts of Spain. Firefighting aircraft circled overhead amidst the thick smoke, and the Spanish government declared a state of emergency.
Across Europe, fires continue to rage, and meteorologists attribute the cause to this year's prolonged extreme heatwave. Temperatures exceeding 40°C have dried and ignited forests, allowing fires to find an opportunity to spread into cities.
On July 28th, wildfires raged near Renton, France.
Breaking temperature records aren't limited to Europe. Thousands of miles away in Turpan, Xinjiang, the Ayding Lake station recorded a temperature exceeding 50°C on July 21st. Currently, throughout July, Turpan has only seen one day with a high temperature below 40°C. Looking at South Asia, temperatures exceeding 46°C in May caused a surge in electricity demand. Workers and machinery struggled to operate in the heat, impacting Bangladesh's textile industry and India's rice trade. In Southeast Asia, extreme heat plunged Javanese into a clean water crisis, and rice, entering its critical growing season, failed to thrive due to the persistent high temperatures and drought brought on by El Niño.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, in the United States, heatwaves slowly spread from west to east. Railway tracks in several cities warped due to the extreme heat, and wildfires, food security threats, and grid strain also occurred.
In 2026, amidst localized wars and widespread conflict, the world has once again become a global village. But this time, the factors connecting countries and regions are not only economic and cultural exchanges, but also the increasingly frequent and intense extreme heatwaves.
On July 1, due to persistent high temperatures and little rainfall, Lake Vérence, a major lake in Hungary, recently suffered a severe drought.
From Europe to Asia, and then to the Americas, temperatures have exceeded the limits of human endurance. Along supply chains and infrastructure networks, through interdependent global trade, they have reached deeper into human society, finding those links in its operation that might be slightly weakened, and then attacking them fiercely.
Extreme heat is no longer just a climate issue; its impact extends beyond simply knocking down those exposed to the elements. It makes forests flammable, predictably reduces food production and causes price increases, puts greater pressure on power grids leading to a surge in industrial costs, and forces humanity to reallocate water resources, replan finances, and rethink how those in unequal circumstances can survive in high temperatures.
The temperature problem is transforming from a matter of food, energy, and water into a political, economic, and social issue.
This is a complex crisis testing human resilience. Worse still, the thermometer continues to rise, and extreme heatwaves are becoming increasingly frequent.
01 The Approaching 50°C
Since 2021, meteorologists' focus on high temperatures has shifted. They're no longer discussing whether temperatures could reach 50°C, but rather how humanity should prepare for it.
50°C is getting closer.
Around 2010, countries and regions where temperatures could potentially soar above 40°C were almost entirely located near the equator, roughly distributed around the subtropical high-pressure belt between 20-30° north and south latitude. In extreme geographical areas like the Sahara Desert or Death Valley in California, extreme heat records of 50°C weren't particularly unusual.
To some extent, over a decade ago, extreme heat was confined to specific regions. In most people's minds, 50°C was a number that only appeared in the heart of the desert, rarely discussed in cities or public discourse.
On June 24th, a temperature sign in Bilbao, Spain, showed a temperature of 44 degrees Celsius.
But today, extreme heat is "breaking" geographical limitations, appearing in mid-latitude regions.
In 2026, Western Europe, with its temperate maritime climate, recorded its hottest June on record. The term "hottest" was particularly apt, as countries like Germany, France, and Spain, which should have been hovering below 30°C, recorded temperatures exceeding 40°C.
By July, the heatwave in Western Europe hadn't improved. Britain was busy cooling down, preparing for the fourth heatwave of the year. The heat dome still loomed over France and Spain, who were racing against time to extinguish wildfires before the fourth heatwave arrived.
A similar situation occurred on the other side of Eurasia. Japan, also around 40°N latitude, experienced five consecutive days of temperatures exceeding 40°C in late July. This unusually prolonged heatwave led the Japanese to coin a new term: "scorching day."
Japan experiences extreme heatwaves, with Tokyo reporting a record number of heatstroke cases in a single day
While mid-latitude countries are adapting to higher temperatures, South Asia, traditionally a high-temperature region, has recently faced early-arriving monsoons and persistent heatwaves. Of course, the biggest challenge between 2026 and 2027 is the strong El Niño phenomenon.
But the changes in high temperatures aren't limited to spatial scales. If we characterize high temperatures over time, we find they are becoming increasingly frequent.
In 2003, Europe experienced a heatwave, which meteorologists defined as "the hottest year in Europe in 500 years." More than a decade later, what was then an isolated event has become a recurring phenomenon.
Europe experienced heatwaves comparable in scale to 2003 in 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2023. In 2019, France broke the 46°C mark for the first time, and in 2022, the UK also broke the "impossible" 40°C mark for the first time. Temperatures once considered rare, perhaps only occurring once every ten or even a century, are now appearing before humanity with increasing frequency.
On July 29, 2026, local time, a display screen in a pharmacy in Paris, France, showed a temperature of 43 degrees Celsius.
The World Meteorological Organization's "Global Climate Status Report 2025" states that the period from 2015 to 2025 will be the 11 hottest years on record.
In other words, high temperatures are becoming more widespread and frequent. Humanity has never come so close to 50 degrees Celsius.
At this point, it's difficult to consider a particular high temperature in a particular year or place as an isolated event. When these points are connected, we should realize that extreme heat has become a global context that everyone must confront.
The test has just begun.
02 Expanding Risks
The words "extreme heat" often evoke images of heat, heatstroke, and death. These are the most easily "visible" forms of high temperatures. Therefore, the heatwave of 2026 first and foremost drew global attention by causing deaths.
According to statistics released by the French Public Health Agency on July 22, the number of deaths in France between June 17 and July 2 was 5,764 higher than normal. Although this death toll represents deaths from "all causes" and cannot be directly linked to the extreme heat, the French Public Health Agency stated that "this is the highest death toll since the devastating heatwave of 2003."
On July 29, 2026, in Paris, France, people sought refuge from extreme heat in the Tuileries Garden, where pharmacies displayed temperatures reaching 43 degrees Celsius.
Similarly, on July 22, the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications' Fire and Disaster Management Agency announced that in the week of July 13 to July 19, 10,857 people nationwide sought medical attention for heatstroke, with 14 deaths and 321 in critical condition. In South Korea in July, three foreign workers died while working outdoors in high temperatures.
Like humans, crops are also directly impacted by repeated periods of high temperatures. High temperatures accelerate evaporation, causing soil moisture loss and increasing the demand for agricultural irrigation. In particular, the strong El Niño event in 2026 prolonged drought conditions. When crops encounter prolonged high temperatures and insufficient water during critical production periods, coupled with heat-induced pest and disease outbreaks, crop failure seems inevitable.
Nguyen Van Trung, a farmer in central Vietnam with one hectare of rice paddy, expressed extreme concern in an interview with foreign media. He had applied fertilizer three times this planting season to ensure the rice grew properly, "but the rice just won't grow because there isn't enough water."
But the real danger lies in the fact that this is not a situation faced by an isolated country.
India, the world's largest rice producer and exporter, has seen its monsoon rainfall decline by about one-sixth year-on-year since June, and the actual shortfall is widening. High temperatures have also affected the critical flowering period for corn. Expansiona predicts that France, Europe's largest agricultural producer, will see its corn production fall to its lowest level since 1990. Germany and the United States have both lowered their projected wheat and corn production, and since July, the EU's wheat exports have also declined.
On June 20, 2026, local time, drought-stricken farmland and cornfields in Saint-Marcel-les-Naïves, Ardèche, France, during a heatwave.
When high temperatures and drought affect a single crop, the problem may be confined to the field. However, when high temperatures become a constant global phenomenon, the pressure shifts from the withering plants themselves to the pressure on grain prices.
In June, the price of Thai rice, the "Asian benchmark" in international rice trade, continued to rise due to anticipated reduced production caused by the high temperatures. During the same period, data monitored by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations showed that global rice prices rose by 3.2% month-on-month.
High temperatures are not limited to agriculture. When both humans and plants face the threat of death, it's natural to think of using electricity to create a cooling environment. Thus, during the heatwave, a debate erupted in Europe about whether air conditioning could be installed, while portable air conditioners swept through Japan.
But the risk lies here. When high temperatures become a state of affairs, does the existing energy system have the capacity to support it? It's important to understand that high temperatures increase grid load, and traditional energy sources like nuclear power require large amounts of water for cooling and circulation to generate electricity.
In early July, EDF (Électricité de France) temporarily shut down three nuclear reactors used for power generation and reduced output from seven other reactors due to excessively high river water temperatures. On the other side of the Atlantic, in the United States, under the "heat dome," power generation exceeded 100,000 GWh from June 28 to July 4, setting a new historical record.
On July 1, the Trump administration declared a grid emergency to address the high temperatures.
And energy pressures will further propagate along the supply chain. Rising electricity costs and unstable energy supplies will both become stumbling blocks to industrial production.
However, food and energy remain the most easily observable aspects. In less noticed places where water plays a crucial role, such as metal smelters, refrigeration plants, and artificial intelligence data centers, high temperatures continue to have a negative impact.
Starting with a person, a drop of water, a grain of rice, a unit of electricity, or a piece of copper, at the very top of the supply chain, high temperatures become a risk multiplier. The intertwined supply chains will carry increasingly higher risks to even more distant destinations.
03 The Cost
Perhaps few people have considered that one of the endpoints of a heatwave is the shelf.
Economists have coined the term "climate inflation." It refers to how climate change drives up the global cost of goods, services, and living expenses, thereby affecting the inflation rate.
Understanding this logic requires piecing together multiple pieces of the puzzle. Extreme heat can trigger droughts, affecting crop and livestock growth, increasing the risk of infectious diseases like dengue fever, and simultaneously causing a decline in labor productivity, reducing industrial production efficiency by impacting the supply of various resources. Both of these factors will affect the livelihoods of farmers and workers, while simultaneously, people will face rising living costs.
On June 23, people left a store in Paris, France, after purchasing electric fans.
In the daily lives of ordinary people, rising living costs manifest in tangible ways: soaring utility bills, increased prices for meat, eggs, grains, vegetables, fruits, coffee, and beer in supermarkets, or rising transportation costs (railway tracks require more maintenance due to deformation caused by high temperatures).
All of this ultimately penetrates deeper into society: exacerbating inequality.
High temperatures are equal for everyone, but different groups have different conditions for protecting themselves from them. For example, some jobs that can afford the high electricity costs of air conditioning can still work in relatively comfortable environments, while farmers, sanitation workers, and construction workers are forced to expose themselves to the risks of high temperatures.
High temperatures amplify the impact of job nature, economic status, population density, and health conditions on human living space, thus potentially widening inequality.
In 2026, Schleypen and Jessie Ruth, researchers at the International Centre for Security and Development Studies, along with other researchers, published a study concluding that extreme heat has a more severe economic impact on low-income groups: the poorest 20% of households experienced a 2.7 percentage point greater income decline during periods of extreme heat than the wealthiest 20%.
This is a chain reaction that accumulates over time in the course of society. Climate change does not directly destroy a city or a country; its relationship with human society is more like one of erosion.
On June 22, pedestrians in Paris, France, used misting systems to cool down.
If every small system, such as agriculture, energy, and industry, is designed with sufficient "safety redundancy," then the impact of extreme heat can be confined to each small system, preventing it from spreading further downstream or outward. Unfortunately, in addition to extreme heat, humanity also faces energy, food supply, and financial risks stemming from war and political struggles.
Just like the farmers in the fields of South Asia, they worry not only about high temperatures, drought, and El Niño, but also about rising fertilizer and diesel prices due to war—the latter being the basic fuel needed for irrigation pumps. They complain about not having enough money to invest in their fields, yet simultaneously face a sharp decline in income.
This is another reason why economists and meteorologists are so concerned about this heat wave. When multiple systems that sustain human society are already in an unstable state, how much capacity do they have left to withstand the impact of high temperatures? Especially since high temperatures attack every small system indiscriminately and "equally."
While war is already relentlessly ravaging food, energy, industry, and people, the 50°C temperatures that have already appeared in sight are actually testing the resilience of human society.
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Temperatures in Germany are nearing 40°C, and nearly 10,000 people have already died from the heat this year.
2026-07-31
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Germany Faces New Heatwave and Public Health Challenge
Germany is facing a new heatwave. July 30 is expected to be the hottest day of this heat wave. The German Meteorological Service (DWD) predicts that the highest temperature in many places will reach 102.2 ℉. High temperature warnings have been issued for a large area of the country, and the forest fire risk level in many areas is also at a high level.
The meteorological department reminds the public that high temperatures have a particularly significant impact on the elderly and those requiring care. It is recommended to avoid prolonged exposure to the sun, drink plenty of water, and keep indoor areas cool.
Meanwhile, some parts of Germany will also experience severe thunderstorms. The German Meteorological Service predicts that from the afternoon of the 30th, strong thunderstorms may occur in Hesse, Thuringia, Lower Saxony, and Saxony-Anhalt, with localized gales and even gusts approaching hurricane strength. Authorities warn that large trees could be uprooted and large objects blown away.
Concerning Heat-Related Deaths
Amidst the ongoing heatwave, Germany's Robert Koch Institute (RKI) has released concerning figures: as of July 19, an estimated 9,800 people in Germany had died from heat-related causes this year. This figure surpasses the record of approximately 9,000 deaths set in 2018 and exceeds the combined total for the years 2023 through 2025.
More than half of these heat-related deaths occurred during the late-June heatwave, when temperatures neared 40°C; approximately 1,900 new heat-related deaths were recorded in the single week between July 13 and 19.
Data shows that heat-related deaths are concentrated among the elderly. People aged 85 and older account for more than half of the cases, followed by the 75–84 and 65–74 age groups. Researchers note that few people die directly from heatstroke; instead, extreme heat often exacerbates chronic conditions—such as cardiovascular, pulmonary, or kidney diseases—ultimately leading to death. Consequently, heat is rarely listed directly on death certificates; instead, estimates are derived by calculating "excess mortality" during the summer months.
"Tropical Nights" and Future Projections
Additionally, many parts of Germany have frequently experienced "tropical nights"—nights where the temperature does not drop below 20°C. Such conditions prevent the body from recovering adequately and pose a particular danger to the elderly and those with chronic illnesses. Frankfurt experienced 13 "tropical nights" between early June and mid-July alone.
Dirk Messner, President of the German Environment Agency, has noted that society pays insufficient attention to the thousands of heat-related deaths, a situation likely to worsen as climate change progresses. The agency projects that by the middle of this century, Germany will see an additional ten days of extreme heat annually, with Berlin’s summer temperatures frequently approaching those currently seen in Madrid.
With temperatures hitting 39°C, nearly 10,000 heat-related deaths, and an increasing frequency of tropical nights, extreme heat has evolved from a mere weather phenomenon into a significant public health challenge for Germany.
What is the temperature where you are today?
The PeakVision team believes that improving living and working environments through the use of air conditioning or water-cooled fans is essential to lowering ambient temperatures, thereby avoiding the direct dangers of heatwaves and safeguarding lives.
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