Why are Coca-Cola and Sprite "unwanted" in 40℃ heat?

In the sweltering summer of 2026, temperatures in many areas soared above 40℃, but the beverage industry experienced a chill. Overall sales of traditional beverages plummeted by approximately 60% year-on-year, with sugary carbonated drinks facing their "coldest peak season" in history. About 70% of distributors saw their business shrink or even suffer losses.

In the second quarter, offline sales of beverages decreased by 11.78% year-on-year, the largest decline among all categories. Specifically:

• Carbonated beverages decreased by 12.23% year-on-year;
• Ready-to-drink juices decreased by 14.84%;
• Only sugar-free ready-to-drink tea and ready-to-drink coffee maintained growth.

More than 500 million adults in China suffer from blood sugar problems, and 69% of consumers check the ingredient list before buying beverages. Professional data shows that while overall sales of carbonated beverages still grew by 4.3%, all of this growth came from the sugar-free category. Classic sugary colas and Sprite saw offline sales decline by more than 12% year-on-year in the second quarter.

Iced tea and other popular beverages have fallen from their prime refrigerator positions to the bottom of the shelves, marking the end of an era.

Sugar-free tea is the only high-growth category, with Q2 sales surging 16.1% year-on-year. It is projected to reach a market size of 135.2 billion yuan in 2026, accounting for half of the tea beverage market for the first time. Oriental Leaf holds a market share of over 75%, dominating the market; Suntory's share has fallen to less than 9%.

Electrolyte water is growing even more rapidly: the market size is approaching 20 billion yuan in 2025 from 2.7 billion yuan in 2022, and is projected to exceed 33 billion yuan in 2026. Alienware has become a 5 billion yuan-level blockbuster product, and Dongpeng's "Water Replenisher" has seen its market share jump from 0 to 34% in three years. 75% of consumption comes from "non-sports scenarios," shifting from professional supplements to daily hydration.

Chinese-style health water unexpectedly cooled down, with sales decreasing by over 20% year-on-year in Q2, and the number of new products plummeting from 134 last year to 49.

Under homogeneous competition, price wars have become the ultimate weapon. Nongfu Spring, Dongpeng, Master Kong, Uni-President, and others have all entered the "one-yuan exchange" game: Nongfu Spring's overall winning rate is 43%; Dongpeng Special Drink has the highest at 80%; Master Kong Iced Tea has 30%. The industry is trapped in a stalemate of "no promotions lead to sluggish sales, promotions don't bring profits," and the survival space for small and medium-sized brands is being continuously squeezed.

The growth rate of coconut water has slowed, with over 50 brands entering the market. However, two notarized tests revealed that all nine best-selling products claiming to be "100% coconut water" tested positive for external water and sugar, severely damaging the industry's trust.

NFC (Not From Concentrate) juice maintained a high growth rate of 20-25%, with affordable products priced at 6-8 yuan making their way into the lower-tier market. However, an undercover investigation in July revealed that many contract manufacturers lacked both fruit and fresh-squeezing equipment; the so-called "100% fresh-squeezed" products relied entirely on water, concentrate, and flavorings, with two-thirds of the market products failing to live up to the claim.