El Nino In 2026 May Set A Record

Since this spring, the sea temperature in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific has been persistently abnormally high, and the El Nino phenomenon has developed rapidly. The main meteorological institutions at home and abroad all predict that this El Nino will continue to strengthen, with a high probability of reaching the standard of strong or even super strong, and may last until early spring of 2027.

The strong El Nino event in the context of global warming not only increases the risk of extreme weather, but will also produce a series of long-term effects by affecting agricultural production, product prices and global supply chains.

At present, the conclusions of domestic and foreign prediction models on the development of El Nino phenomenon are highly consistent, and it is expected to reach the standard of strong or even super El Nino.

According to the latest prediction of the National Climate Center of China, the sea surface temperature of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific will continue to rise in the future, and a strong-super El Nino event will form in the summer and autumn.

The latest monthly "Global Seasonal Climate Update" released by the World Meteorological Organization shows that from July to September 2026, the El Nino state will rapidly develop into a strong El Nino event. The multi-model ensemble forecast from multiple major prediction centers around the world shows that the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean continues to rise significantly, and the seasonal average sea surface temperature in key monitoring areas is expected to be more than 2 degrees Celsius higher than the long-term average.

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center reported on the 9th that in the past month, the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean has continued to rise, and the coupling characteristics of the ocean and atmosphere indicate that the El Nino phenomenon is strengthening. It is expected to continue to strengthen in the second half of this year, and there is a 97% probability that it will continue until early spring of 2027. The probability of a strong El Nino event from October to December this year is 81%, and its intensity may rank among the strongest El Nino events since 1950.

According to the latest announcement issued by the Peruvian El Niño Research Institute, the coastal El Niño will gradually reach its strongest stage from August to November and may develop into a very strong level.

The World Meteorological Organization issued a press release at the beginning of this month, saying that the El Nino state has developed in the tropical Pacific region, and that it is expected to rapidly intensify in the coming months, thereby increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, and heavy rainfall in many parts of the world.

Experts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts also said on the 7th that the overall strength of the current El Nino phenomenon is expected to set a new record, and all parts of the world are facing the risk of droughts, floods and other extreme weather events related to it.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, it is expected that El Nino will continue to strengthen in the northern hemisphere in the autumn, and its impact will extend to many regions of the world.In terms of temperature, it is highly likely that the temperature in most land areas between 60°S and 60°N will be higher than the average annual temperature, which covers almost all densely populated areas outside the polar regions.In terms of rainfall, the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is more likely to have above-normal rainfall, while parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, the Indian subcontinent, and most of Australia are more likely to have below-normal rainfall.

Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California in the United States, said that this El Nino event is unusual. It not only has broken many records in the current period, but also occurs in the context of burning coal, oil and gas causing global warming, so it cannot be simply assumed that it will completely replicate the impact of the strong El Nino event in history.

Many climate scientists predict that the combination of global warming and the release of accumulated heat in the ocean caused by El Nino will likely set a new record for the global average temperature in the coming months. Zachary Labe, a researcher at the U.S. independent climate research institution Climate Central, said that a strong El Nino will increase the likelihood of setting "stunning" temperature records in the next 6 to 12 months.

In addition to bringing extreme weather, El Nino will also have a long-term and far-reaching negative impact on economic and social development. Sabha Netukandi Chenoli, an associate professor of geography at the Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences of the University of Malaya, said that at present, it is the southwest monsoon season in Malaysia, and the rainfall is relatively low. El Nino will further suppress the rainfall, making the forests and peatlands drier and increasing the risk of fires. At the same time, the continuous drought may also lead to a decrease in river flow and a decline in reservoir water levels, putting pressure on the production of major agricultural products such as palm oil, natural rubber, and rice, and affecting tourism, transportation, public health, and other fields to varying degrees.

When the Central Savings Bank of Peru released its monetary policy report for July, it predicted that the El Nino phenomenon would drag down Peru's economic growth this year. Adrian Armas, general manager of economic research at the Central Bank of Peru, told the media that the central bank's current economic forecast is based on the assumption that a strong El Nino phenomenon will occur this year.In this scenario, El Niño is expected to reduce Peru's GDP growth rate by 0.7 percentage points in 2026.

The British Financial Times believes that in the era of globalization, El Nino is no longer a simple meteorological concept, but has become an important risk factor that can affect global market expectations. The International Monetary Fund also pointed out in its research that the impact of El Nino is not limited to the countries where abnormal weather occurs, but will also be transmitted to other countries through international trade, cross-border investment and product markets, and its impact may affect economies that have not directly encountered extreme weather.

Tian Zemin, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and president of Nanjing University, said that the impact of El Nino has obvious cross-regional characteristics. Due to its cross-industry characteristics and lag, it is necessary to strengthen climate prediction and early warning, key industry linkage, and supply chain risk management from the perspective of climate risk chain to prevent and respond to El Nino, so as to enhance the systematic response ability of the whole society to strong El Nino.